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Mark Mulder Live-Tweeted Moneyball

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FanGraphs Playoff Odds 2014

As of February 24th; link:

fangraphs nl 2014

fangraphs al 2014

FanGraphs Projected Standings 2014

As of February 24th; link:

fangraphs nl standings 2014fangraphs nl 2

Baseball Prospectus Projected Standings 2014

As of February 18th; link:



Clay Davenport’s Playoff Odds 2014

Clay Davenport: Wikipedia

davenport nl 2014

davenport al 2014

LVH SuperBook Predictions 2014

Link: “MLB season win totals posted in Las Vegas, Dodgers on top”

Win totals:

win totals

Division odds:

division odds

Four Thoughts On Steroid Testing

Steroids in baseball and the possible changes to the current policy? Here’s what I think of the things sportswriters are proposing:

  • I don’t mind stiffer penalties but I don’t agree with banned for life on first offense. I mean it’s one thing if you’re a serial cheater like A-Rod, but what about a guy that stupidly screwed up what supplement he was taking? He deserves to be punished, yes, because it’s his responsibility to make sure he’s not screwing up, but taking his entire career away? I don’t agree with that and never will. So 1st offense, for me, can be anywhere from 50 to 162 games. I’m probably cool with a lifetime ban for a second offense.
  • Demanding increased testing in the offseason is kind of ignorant. I mean, it sounds good in theory but I don’t think it can actually be done if you stop to think about it. How are you going to collect players’ urine in 20 different countries? How can you trust a urine sample collected in one of the countries where players have been found to have forged birth certificates? How do you in good conscience send sample collectors to “The Kidnap Capital of Latin America” aka Venezuela?
  • I am against contract voiding and always will be. The owners are members of the wealthiest 1% of this country – a population littered with white-collar crooks of all types. I would never allow them the even remote possibility that if they wanted to shave money off their payrolls by targeting bad contracts (e.g. Ryan Howard) they could do something shady to make that happen.
  • Due process appeal rights need to remain intact as-is.

2013 Draft (#11 Overall)

Dominic Smith

06/15/1995 (17y11m) 6’0″ 195

“Mets select Smith with 11th overall¬†pick” by Adam Rubin

“Mets stick with M.O., draft high school bat Smith” by¬†Anthony DiComo

“A New Life for the Mets Prospect Dominic Smith” by Billy Witz

Phillies Hypocrisy, Part 743

What Moneyball Is (and Is Not)

I read an article recently by Andrew Wharton on MetsBlog that said the following:

… My initial reaction was to blame Sandy Alderson for not bringing in adequate talent that followed the Moneyball formula: high on-base (OBP) and slugging percentage (SLG), and low strikeout rates. But upon further inspection …

God, I hated that article for how much it fundamentally misunderstands “Moneyball.” I wrote him an e-mail (well, first I Tweeted at him and he asked me to e-mail him so it’s not like I just flew off the handle, everybody) and what follows below is most of what it said:


The “Moneyball Formula” was not about OBP and SLG. It was basically all about WAR vs. salary. In 2002, Scott Hatteberg put up a 2.9 WAR as a $900,000 free agent. That’s ~$310,000 per WAR. For comparison, here’s some 2002 players’ WAR & salary:
Tim Salmon: 3.1, $10,000,000 AAV = ~$3,225,000 per WAR
Mike Piazza: 3.7, $13,000,000 AAV = ~$3,500,000 per WAR
Johnny Damon: 4.0, $7,750,000 AAV = ~$1,937,500 per WAR
Gary Sheffield: 4.9, $10,166,667 AAV = ~$2,075,000 per WAR
Jason Giambi: 6.6, $17,142,857 AAV = ~$2,600,000 per WAR
The league average was ~$2,800,000 per WAR.

So Hatteberg represented an 80-90% discount on services rendered vs paid compensation. THAT’S what Moneyball was about. It was about finding something good that nobody could see was right in front of them and being able to get it for a bargain-basement price. That’s why Chad Bradford is a perfect Moneyball player. The guy produced excellent results in the White Sox system but he didn’t have velocity or strikeouts or physique or whatever else so Billy Beane was able to pick the Sox’ pocket for Bradford (the A’s didn’t even have to send the useless Miguel Olivo to Chicago until almost a week later) and he only had to be paid league-minimum.

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